Three Important Questions Ahead of an Uncertain Election

On a campaign truck, the former Future Forward Party leader Thanathorn Juangroongrueangkit was making a speech supporting a Move Forward candidate. “The opportunity for change has come,” he said. “Please give a chance for Pheu Thai to change Thailand…” He was quickly reminded by his team that he was campaigning for the wrong party. On another day, while at a debate, Thanathorn said, “I’ve given interviews before about Pheu Thai…” He then stopped himself and facepalmed. 

These are interesting Freudian slips to make just three weeks away from the election. Pheu Thai has clearly been on Thanathorn’s mind a lot recently. With the next general election in just three weeks, many minds are undoubtedly pondering: is May 14th going to produce a Pheu Thai government? 

On the surface, this shouldn’t be a difficult question to answer. No poll has given any party but Pheu Thai a lead, and it is virtually inconceivable that any other party will win the largest number of seats. Thai Rath is predicting that Pheu Thai will win 247 seats, just three short of an outright majority in the lower house. The Nation’s reporting team believes Pheu Thai is leading in 194 constituencies and is competitive in 84 more; combined with seats from the party-list, that could also take the party close to a majority. NIDA’s latest poll shows that Pheu Thai is over twenty percentage points ahead of any other party.

What, then, could possibly prevent a Pheu Thai ‘landslide,’ a phrase the party repeats incessantly, almost as if they can hypnotize the population into willing it into existence? Here, I’ve listed three key questions that have to be answered to gauge Pheu Thai’s chances of success.

Click here for the full piece at Thai Enquirer.

(Cover image credits)






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